49ers options in Free Agency at WR

It comes as no surprise that as we enter the free agency period since the 49ers season is over, that the missing ingredient to our Super Bowl run was glaringly, blantantly, egregiously missing...a threat at WR. There was never a dearth of talent at this position during the 49ers glory years. From R.C. Owens in the 50's, to Jerry Rice and John Taylor in the 80's/90's and Terrell Owens in the early 2000's. if you put the ball in their hands they could change the outcome of a game. It's because of Jerry Rice in the West Coast Offense that the NFL even began tracking YAC (yards after catch).

 The staple of the WCO was the quick slant and pivot route (shown right in the slot), that at any moment a speedy elusive WR could take the ball to the house at any time. The prolific 49ers WR's always created opportunities for the offense. It's true that Defense CAN bring you Championships, but the offense sorely lacked in the offensive potency department. Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee clearly pointed out that next year we can't rely solely on turnovers as an ingredient to success. Unfortunately, as much as we all can believe skill plays a part in causing turnovers, some of it is partially luck...being in the right place at the right time. Right now Trent Baalke is assessing the free agent market for a skilled WR and after looking at some of the options, I strongly believe the 49ers need to pursue the following wide receivers (in no particular order). Thanks to Matt Maiocco who came up with a good list of available options.

1) Vincent Jackson (Chargers) who is age 29 and stands 6'5" and rocks the scale at 230lbs. He had 60 catches for 1,106 yards and had 9 trips to the end zone in 2011. The number that jumps out at you is the 18.4 yards per catch average! However; one has to look at the fact that Alex Smith does not throw a lot of deep balls nor was the system setup that way  in 2011. Alex Smith's range is more in the short to intermediate range. The more telling statistic is that Jackson only had 247 YAC yards through 2011 and only 39 catches for 1st Downs. Both are moderate to low if we're comparing against elite WR's. I went with Vincent Jackson over Reggie Wayne who had 277 YAC and 50 1st Down catches simply because Wayne's age is definitely a hindrance rather than an upside. If the 49ers are to be able to string multiple runs at the Super Bowl together, they need youth to be on their side. Additionally, continuity with a QB is immensely helpful against a top tier defense.

2) Dwayne Bowe (Chiefs) stand 6'2" and scales in at 221 lbs. He'll be 28 in September and is definitely on the upside of his career. He played every game in 2011 and collected a very respectable 81 receptions for 1,159 yards and 5 TD's on an under-achieving team. His average yards per catch was a healthy 14.3 avg, but the more telling figure is that he amassed 359 YAC and 57 1st down catches this past season. Bowe is probably going to be one of the sexy names in free agency this year, since he may not want to squander his youth on a team that will need to re-gear itself under Romeo Crennel. Bowe would obviously be the explosive pick-up the 49ers need; however, the major question is can they get him at the correct price. My guess is probably not, but you just never know how much a NFL GM will be willing to pay for that missing piece of the Super Bowl puzzle i.e. Atlanta Falcons come to mind in the 2011 draft.

3) Marques Colston (Saints) Age 29. At 6'4" and 225 pounds, Colston had 80 catches for 1,143 yards and 8 TD's. His large frame and his ability to box-out his competition would be handy in the red-zone; which is an area the 49ers struggled with at times during the season. His 14 yards per catch average helps pick up those needed 1st downs which is something the 49ers struggled with on 3rd downs all season. However, one has to wonder if he was more a product of the Saints offense and could handle being the #1 option...since the Saints have a plethora of talented WR's. Again comparing the tangibles I deem pertinent to good WR play, Colston had 265 YAC and 55 1st down catches. Clearly his production in picking up that needed 1st down to sustain drives is why I think he'd be an excellent pick up. The fact that Brees spreads the ball around evenly, Colston's TD totals could have been even higher. Between Bowe and Colston there should be a lot of teams vying for their attention if they both hit the open market.

4) Stevie Johnson (Bills) Although smaller at a 6'2" stature and, 210 lbs frame. Stevie Johnson had a productive year on a Bills squad that fell apart only 1/3 of the way through the season. His 76 receptions for 1,004 yards and 7 TD's put him on a nice trajectory for a big pay day come free agency. He was a bright spot in a young Bills squad and being only 26 years old he has a lot of football left in him. Originally born in San Francisco who knows if he'll want to reconnect with his roots. Johnson produced a good YAC of 325 and 45 1st down catches. Being just out of the top-tier FA WR's such as Bowe and Colston, Johnson figures to have a little more reasonable price tag and decent return on investment. One can never truly predict how a player will produce once they sign their first free agent deal, but a perfect example of things working out well for the 49ers is Carlos Rogers in 2011. If a player feels he has something to prove it can be a dangerous weapon. I think Stevie Johnson offers the most to a 49ers team looking to take the next step in 2012. Paired with Michael Crabtree they could be a very dominant force which defenses will have to choose which threat to double team...is it Crabtree, Johnson, Davis, or Walker? Be scared NFL, be very scared!

The most surprising numbers don't come from a WR on another team, but they come from Michael Crabtree no less! Crabtree had 372 YAC which tops all of the available free agents in 2012, save Wes Welker...which let's face it...he's not leaving New England. Granted Crabtree can disappear, as evidenced in the NFC Championship game. The Championship game was evidence that getting open and making separation is one part of King Crab's game that could use some work. One full off-season of Crabtree and Smith gaining repetition and familiarity will only help Crabtree move to the upper echelon of productive 1st round pick wide-receivers.

Just to give some basis for my inclusion of YAC and 1st down catches, if you look at the numbers for the top 2 receiving threats in the league for WR's: Wes Welker and Calvin Johnson. Their YAC and 1st Down catches are at the top of the league. Welker had 732 YAC yards and 77 1st Down Catches according to ESPN Stats and Inc. Comparatively, Calvin Johnson had 524 YAC and 77 1st Down catches. These are elite numbers and numbers one should use as the benchmark for success in the NFL as far as receivers go. Other WR's to take note that are FA's are Early Doucet, 346 YAC and 35 1st down catches and DeSean Jackson 247 YAC and 39 1st down catches. Both were on under-achieving teams and I don't think their production will warrant Trent Baalke signing either one of them since their production matches their team's performance.

Out of all the available WR's in free agency this year, the aforementioned top four free agent wide-receivers I believe would be excellent fits for the 49ers brand of football and locker room chemistry. Dwayne Bowe was productive despite being on an anemic squad. Vincent Jackson and Marques Colston have the size to be threats in the red-zone. And lastly Stevie Johnson has the speed and play-making ability to take the top off the opposing defense. Paired with Michael Crabtree and a healthy Josh Morgan the offense might be able to scare some people next year. If I had to pick a favorite I would hope desperately for Stevie Johnson to come to town. He's a young rising star, he's fast, and has a knack for making the big play or spectacular catch...and he might even come in at a fair market price. Here's hoping that we have #13 in red and gold next year.