WR a combo of Drafting and Free Agency

To summarize my prior posts regarding the WR position a combo of acquiring talent through free agency and the draft is paramount. Nothing against the team's current wide-outs, but I say keep only those under contract and let the rest go. If the 49ers pick up a tall WR in free agency, i.e. Marques Colston or Vincent Jackson it would be nice to see the 49ers draft a player like Mohamed Sanu or Marvin McNutt. Conversely if the 49ers pick up Dwayne Bowe or Stevie Johnson in free agency then they should draft taller receivers like Quick, Streeter, or Randle. In the NFL it's all about mis-matches against an opponent. Being able to have a variety of threats poses different mis-matches.

As much as I really like Josh Morgan, his injury seemed pretty serious and you just don't know how much his speed and season long endurance will be able to hold up. Ginn is great in the special-teams return game, but he just doesn't have enough offensive ability to warrant keeping him around. I'd like to see Trent Baalke go after two to three wide receivers in free agency and the draft. My ideal scenario would be to see the 49ers go out and get Stevie Johnson in free agency, and then draft Mohamed Sanu in the 2nd round and Brian Quick in the 4th round. Given that Harbaugh and Roman prefer multiple tight-end formations I think the 49ers max out at two wide-receiver acquisitions in the off-season even though they should pick up three quality receivers.

Depending how the draft unfolds and if the 49ers deem a veteran WR in free agency important it will drastically affect what the 49ers do with the #30 overall selection. Let's say the 49ers do not acquire a WR in free-agency do they reach and take Sanu or Randle? The other option is the 49ers find a suitor for this pick because Sanu, Randle, or both are already off the board and they move back into the top of the 2nd and select either the highest rated cornerback or draft Rueben Randle. My gut still says Randle is a reach and the 49ers will select whoever is rated the highest when they pick. I think the 49ers should take the best man available regardless of position or trade this pick if it's possible.

If the 49ers do sign a veteran WR in free agency who they feel can take the #1 or #2 spot alongside Crabtree, then WR at this point in the draft no longer is an urgent need according to the Walsh philosophy and WR are the last piece of the puzzle. Remember, Harbaugh is a Stanford man, and even was under the tutelage of the legendary Walsh for a short-time and more than likely already picked up on this piece of advice. This is the point where it's time to wheel and deal the pick and add as many draft selections as possible. This means the 49ers will take a WR in the 3rd through 5th rounds of the draft. My money is on Quick in the 4th. This leaves the 49ers with more selections to draft much needed help in the CB, S, OLB, DL, RB, and OL positions.

Given that the 49ers are going to be playing 5 teams in 2012 (Packers, Saints, Patriots, Lions, & Giants) that are the top 6 teams in passing from 2011, they will need lots of help in the secondary. They'll also need more depth along the line for a good rotation to keep the big guys up front fresh.  Given the fact that the 49ers allowed too many sacks in 2011 the Center and Guard positions will be looked at and in the late rounds, and a RB to replace Gore or Dixon will be taken. There is always the option for another late round WR that can handle the KR/PR duties if Ginn departs, but the last few selections have not panned out that late in the draft...unless Baalke stops drafting short panicky guys. Maybe Ginn stays, but only as a returner and a last resort WR.

Rating the WR options in the 2012 NFL Draft

So after assessing the free agent landscape for a top-tier wide-receiver I'm going to delve into the 49ers options in the draft at the position. Since I'm not claiming to be a college scout I'm using Pro Football Weekly as my reference for looking at the 49ers options in this year's draft. I've only used one primary attribute to eliminate a lot of potential WR candidates the 49ers could draft and that is height. Height can not be taught nor can it be coaxed out of an underachieving talent. I'm using it as my litmus test for finding that explosive red-zone target the Niners desperately need in order to not only make it to the 'Big Game' in 2013, but to win it as well. I took the top 15 prospects ranked from tallest to shortest and will touch on some of the WR's that I like based on certain criteria. Many mock drafts have the 49ers taking Ashlon Jeffery (if he falls to pick #30 in the 1st round) or Mohamed Sanu. I just don't see the Ashlon Jeffery pick working out. Some vibe that he is a selfish me-first type of person just doesn't seem to fit the blue collar mentality Harbaugh has going. Add in the fact that Jeffery only runs a 4.60 estimated 40 yard dash doesn't exactly stretch the field for big plays. He would be a possession receiver much in the same mold as Keyshawn Johnson and I make this reference very literally. Selfish, big, and slow.

The players I would most like to see the 49ers go after with 2nd to 5th round picks would be in order of possible draft selection.

1) Rueben Randle (projected 1st round): who I haven't seen on any mock drafts yet. Randle played for LSU, so he faced big time competition in the SEC and in the BCS. He's 6'4" 205lbs which is solid and runs a quick 4.40 40 yard dash. He's 1st round talent that we could take with the 30th overall selection in the round. Again, I haven't seen him on any mock drafts for the 1st round yet. Most of the players I've seen in the mocks have Justin Blackmon, Malcolm Floyd, Mohamed Sanu, Kendall Wright & Ashlon Jefferey. Given that Blackmon, Floyd, and Wright are all going to be selected before the 49ers pick I won't really give them much consideration. If the 49ers take a WR at the #30 spot, it could be Randle, and not Jeffery or Sanu who are either slower or shorter than he is. Additionally neither faced the kind of competition that Randle did in college. Not that where you play ball before you show up in the NFL is ever the pre-requisite for success it simply is a barometer for possible success given the level of talent one is facing every Saturday. Jerry Rice is a perfect example of a small school player with talent. However, I digress and to drive home my point, Randle would be the most battle tested and ready made prospect the 49ers could hope for at the #30 spot IF they take a WR. Although his numbers are lower than Sanu; which is why Sanu is probably projected higher in the mocks, he caught 53 balls for 917 yards and most importantly 8 scores. I'm putting more emphasis on level of competition and scoring ability. I think even here, Randle is a reach and the 49ers should trade this pick and get more draft choices.

2) Mohamed Sanu (projected 2nd round): I honestly do like Sanu even though he's only 6'2", but I just don't think he slips to #30 in the 2nd round. Rutgers has been winning, hence Greg Schiano landing a NFL head coaching gig, and Sanu put up great numbers despite not having a great QB. He had 1200 yards on 115 receptions along with 7 TD's. These numbers are better than any 49er since Owens in the early 2000's. He would be an excellent addition to the team if we trade up in the 2nd or take him with the 1st round pick. Like it or not the stats look amazing, but the Big East isn't as competitive as the SEC and you can't coach height. I know Al Davis had a penchant for speed, well mine is height. If we already had a tall WR I would choose Sanu in the 1st, but we need a big red-zone target, which Sanu does not give you. Our offense will never give Sanu the opportunity to put up the kind of numbers he did at Rutgers. If Sanu somehow miraculously lasts a little ways into the 2nd the 49ers need to trade up and get him...if they didn't trade back from round 1, which would be ideal. There is a really good profile on Sanu here that you should read. Based on that read we probably need to take Sanu with the 30th pick or hopefully gain some leverage and trade back, pick up a few additional draft choices and still get Sanu at the top of the 2nd round. He's just too good to pass up, but if we can pull a Bill Walsh-esque move then we benefit two-fold. The only problem with all of this logic is that the Rams are at the top of the 2nd and desperately need WR help if they don't take Blackmon in the 1st. Behind them are the Vikings and Browns who are in the exact same boat. My guess is that the 49ers will probably forego drafting a WR this high and elect to find a gem in the 3rd through 5th rounds.

3) Marvin McNutt (projected 3rd round): A potential possession WR in the NFL McNutt has the less than ideal size being in the 6'2" range and as I already mentioned with Sanu, the 49ers desperately need help in the skyscraper department at this position. BleacherReport did a nice piece on McNutt here and made mention of his lack of top end speed. However, given his detriments in speed and height he is the model citizen when it comes to consistency and progression which is what coaches love seeing from a player. Given a full off-season program and the ability to focus in and hone his craft McNutt could be a very serviceable WR in the NFL. As mentioned in the article he is consistently able to beat press coverage which is something the 49ers need from their WR's on 3rd down and in the red-zone. His 12 TD's this past year is definitely a positive and could be a solid pick in the 3rd round. Not to make a gross generalization, but it seems the mid-west boys out of the Big Ten just have high work ethics. I think McNutt could be a steal in the 3rd round and something the 49ers offense could rely on in crucial situations.

4) Tommy Streeter (projected 3rd - 4th round): I chose Streeter over  Hill because Streeter had more receptions (46) and touchdowns (8) than Hill (28 & 5). However, Hill had 820 yards on only 28 receptions. You could argue hill has the bigger play ability and didn't have a strong enough offense to help the rest of his numbers; however, if you break up the TD's per reception ratio it's identical and I'd prefer a WR that has more stats to back up taking a guy in the 3rd round. Making a gut call for the 3rd round selections, clearly McNutt is the safer choice.

5) Brian Quick: (Sleeper pick in the 4th round) I just read this great piece by Eric Branch and because of that wonderful bit of knowledge about Walsh I now have a draft crush in Brian Quick. He's almost 6'4" so he meets the eyeball test in the height department. In my opinion he could be this year's Marques Colston/Jerry Rice/small school guy that produces big in the NFL. Just watch the video and read the profile on him at the BleacherReport link I supplied above and you'll see why the 49ers need to sit tight and take Brian Quick in the 3rd or 4th round.

I obviously did not profile all of the potential WR's above 6'2", but let me know if you have any comments about one of the WR's I did not high-light that you feel would fit in with the 49ers.

49ers options in Free Agency at WR

It comes as no surprise that as we enter the free agency period since the 49ers season is over, that the missing ingredient to our Super Bowl run was glaringly, blantantly, egregiously missing...a threat at WR. There was never a dearth of talent at this position during the 49ers glory years. From R.C. Owens in the 50's, to Jerry Rice and John Taylor in the 80's/90's and Terrell Owens in the early 2000's. if you put the ball in their hands they could change the outcome of a game. It's because of Jerry Rice in the West Coast Offense that the NFL even began tracking YAC (yards after catch).

 The staple of the WCO was the quick slant and pivot route (shown right in the slot), that at any moment a speedy elusive WR could take the ball to the house at any time. The prolific 49ers WR's always created opportunities for the offense. It's true that Defense CAN bring you Championships, but the offense sorely lacked in the offensive potency department. Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee clearly pointed out that next year we can't rely solely on turnovers as an ingredient to success. Unfortunately, as much as we all can believe skill plays a part in causing turnovers, some of it is partially luck...being in the right place at the right time. Right now Trent Baalke is assessing the free agent market for a skilled WR and after looking at some of the options, I strongly believe the 49ers need to pursue the following wide receivers (in no particular order). Thanks to Matt Maiocco who came up with a good list of available options.

1) Vincent Jackson (Chargers) who is age 29 and stands 6'5" and rocks the scale at 230lbs. He had 60 catches for 1,106 yards and had 9 trips to the end zone in 2011. The number that jumps out at you is the 18.4 yards per catch average! However; one has to look at the fact that Alex Smith does not throw a lot of deep balls nor was the system setup that way  in 2011. Alex Smith's range is more in the short to intermediate range. The more telling statistic is that Jackson only had 247 YAC yards through 2011 and only 39 catches for 1st Downs. Both are moderate to low if we're comparing against elite WR's. I went with Vincent Jackson over Reggie Wayne who had 277 YAC and 50 1st Down catches simply because Wayne's age is definitely a hindrance rather than an upside. If the 49ers are to be able to string multiple runs at the Super Bowl together, they need youth to be on their side. Additionally, continuity with a QB is immensely helpful against a top tier defense.

2) Dwayne Bowe (Chiefs) stand 6'2" and scales in at 221 lbs. He'll be 28 in September and is definitely on the upside of his career. He played every game in 2011 and collected a very respectable 81 receptions for 1,159 yards and 5 TD's on an under-achieving team. His average yards per catch was a healthy 14.3 avg, but the more telling figure is that he amassed 359 YAC and 57 1st down catches this past season. Bowe is probably going to be one of the sexy names in free agency this year, since he may not want to squander his youth on a team that will need to re-gear itself under Romeo Crennel. Bowe would obviously be the explosive pick-up the 49ers need; however, the major question is can they get him at the correct price. My guess is probably not, but you just never know how much a NFL GM will be willing to pay for that missing piece of the Super Bowl puzzle i.e. Atlanta Falcons come to mind in the 2011 draft.

3) Marques Colston (Saints) Age 29. At 6'4" and 225 pounds, Colston had 80 catches for 1,143 yards and 8 TD's. His large frame and his ability to box-out his competition would be handy in the red-zone; which is an area the 49ers struggled with at times during the season. His 14 yards per catch average helps pick up those needed 1st downs which is something the 49ers struggled with on 3rd downs all season. However, one has to wonder if he was more a product of the Saints offense and could handle being the #1 option...since the Saints have a plethora of talented WR's. Again comparing the tangibles I deem pertinent to good WR play, Colston had 265 YAC and 55 1st down catches. Clearly his production in picking up that needed 1st down to sustain drives is why I think he'd be an excellent pick up. The fact that Brees spreads the ball around evenly, Colston's TD totals could have been even higher. Between Bowe and Colston there should be a lot of teams vying for their attention if they both hit the open market.

4) Stevie Johnson (Bills) Although smaller at a 6'2" stature and, 210 lbs frame. Stevie Johnson had a productive year on a Bills squad that fell apart only 1/3 of the way through the season. His 76 receptions for 1,004 yards and 7 TD's put him on a nice trajectory for a big pay day come free agency. He was a bright spot in a young Bills squad and being only 26 years old he has a lot of football left in him. Originally born in San Francisco who knows if he'll want to reconnect with his roots. Johnson produced a good YAC of 325 and 45 1st down catches. Being just out of the top-tier FA WR's such as Bowe and Colston, Johnson figures to have a little more reasonable price tag and decent return on investment. One can never truly predict how a player will produce once they sign their first free agent deal, but a perfect example of things working out well for the 49ers is Carlos Rogers in 2011. If a player feels he has something to prove it can be a dangerous weapon. I think Stevie Johnson offers the most to a 49ers team looking to take the next step in 2012. Paired with Michael Crabtree they could be a very dominant force which defenses will have to choose which threat to double team...is it Crabtree, Johnson, Davis, or Walker? Be scared NFL, be very scared!

The most surprising numbers don't come from a WR on another team, but they come from Michael Crabtree no less! Crabtree had 372 YAC which tops all of the available free agents in 2012, save Wes Welker...which let's face it...he's not leaving New England. Granted Crabtree can disappear, as evidenced in the NFC Championship game. The Championship game was evidence that getting open and making separation is one part of King Crab's game that could use some work. One full off-season of Crabtree and Smith gaining repetition and familiarity will only help Crabtree move to the upper echelon of productive 1st round pick wide-receivers.

Just to give some basis for my inclusion of YAC and 1st down catches, if you look at the numbers for the top 2 receiving threats in the league for WR's: Wes Welker and Calvin Johnson. Their YAC and 1st Down catches are at the top of the league. Welker had 732 YAC yards and 77 1st Down Catches according to ESPN Stats and Inc. Comparatively, Calvin Johnson had 524 YAC and 77 1st Down catches. These are elite numbers and numbers one should use as the benchmark for success in the NFL as far as receivers go. Other WR's to take note that are FA's are Early Doucet, 346 YAC and 35 1st down catches and DeSean Jackson 247 YAC and 39 1st down catches. Both were on under-achieving teams and I don't think their production will warrant Trent Baalke signing either one of them since their production matches their team's performance.

Out of all the available WR's in free agency this year, the aforementioned top four free agent wide-receivers I believe would be excellent fits for the 49ers brand of football and locker room chemistry. Dwayne Bowe was productive despite being on an anemic squad. Vincent Jackson and Marques Colston have the size to be threats in the red-zone. And lastly Stevie Johnson has the speed and play-making ability to take the top off the opposing defense. Paired with Michael Crabtree and a healthy Josh Morgan the offense might be able to scare some people next year. If I had to pick a favorite I would hope desperately for Stevie Johnson to come to town. He's a young rising star, he's fast, and has a knack for making the big play or spectacular catch...and he might even come in at a fair market price. Here's hoping that we have #13 in red and gold next year.